We are the Weather Makers

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Chapter 17: Danger Ahead

 Flannery opens this chapter by discussing what is known as "the commitment". This term is used to describe the fact that greenhouse gas emissions being released today will not be felt to their full extent until the year 2050. This term is used to show that what we release today must be an effective and efficient amount of CO2, because if it is not then we are committed to the effects of these harmful amounts in the future. Flannery goes on to say that most of the damage done to our environment occurred during the 1950s in the baby-boom era.

Flannery continues in the following paragraphs and explains examples of things that were used in the 1950s that were particularly inefficient. Products such as automobiles and electric vacuum cleaners made in the 1950s had and are still having immense repercussions on our environment.

According to Flannery there are four major factors relating to the climate change we can no longer prevent. These factors include the CO2 we have already released, the positive feedback loops that amplify climate change, global dimming and the speed at which human economies can decarbonize themselves.

Flannery continues to say that a leading scientist states that a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of 70% (from 1990 levels) is required, to stabilize our Earth's climate. By doing this, the result would be an atmosphere with 450 parts per million CO2. An increase from what we currently have with an atmosphere with 380 parts per million. This would result in our Earth's climate stabilizing around the year 2100. Stabilizing at a temperature at least 1.1° Celsius higher to as much as 5 ° Celsius higher.

Though this goal seems achievable, Flannery believes a realistic scenario would be an environment with an atmosphere of 550 parts per million of atmospheric CO2. By doing this we would in effect double the pre-industrial levels of CO2 emitted and would therefore increase global temperature by 3° Celsius this century.

Flannery ends this chapter by telling us that our global temperature average is around 15° Celsius. If we allow this to rise by a single degree or 3° Celsius we will decide the fate of hundreds of thousands of species, and billions of people.

Questions for Tim Flannery:

 1. Do you believe we will reach your projected target of 3° Celsius?

2. Do you believe that our world is truly motivated to make the necessary changes that are needed to reduce CO2 emissions?

3. Do you agree with the increased usage of hybrid vehicles such as the Toyota Prius?